Computers will freeze and drop offline with increasing regularity as the web's outdated infrastructure struggles to cope with the surging popularity of bandwidth-hungry video sites, it is claimed. Analysts are warning that the internet will cease to function as an effective tool of communication – becoming merely an "unreliable toy" for casual users – unless networks are upgraded. The Government has made universal broadband the cornerstone of its digital policy, promising that every household will have a connection by 2012. But there are concerns that a failure to commit to new high-speed networks could undermine the long-term future of the economy. Online traffic is already growing at 60 per cent a year, but Ted Ritter of Nemertes Research, a think tank, predicts demand could double in 2009, driven by increased use of video-on-demand websites. More than 180 million television programmes were watched over the internet in the first year of the BBC's iPlayer catch-up service, with rivals 4oD and ITV.com also attracting large audiences. The video-sharing website YouTube, which has helped propel Britain's Got Talent winner Susan Boyle to international fame, reportedly uses as much bandwidth as the entire internet took up in 2000. "Today people know how home computers slow down when the kids get back from school and start playing games, but by 2012 that traffic jam could last all day long," Mr Ritter said. "For business purposes, such as delivering medical records between hospitals in real time, it's useless." Telecoms companies in Britain are already investing in new fibre-optic cables to replace the existing network of copper lines – BT has pledged to connect 10 million homes to its super-fast service by 2012, and Virgin Media is also rolling out fibre optic broadband. But it is feared that millions of homes particularly in rural areas will be left with a crawling, second-rate service as internet use explodes. Some internet service providers are planning to profit from the predicted congestion by charging websites to fast-track their content, in a move seen as compromising "net neutrality" – the principle that all web content should be transmitted with equal priority. Mr Ritter, who is compiling a report on the future on the web to be published later this year, has warned online surfers to expect "brownouts" – debilitating combinations of screen freezes and slow connections - in the near future. "At best, we see the [economic] slowdown delaying the fractures for maybe a year," he said. ( www.telegraph.co.uk )
Post a Comment